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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9.
After briefly picking up last month, manufacturing activity declined modestly in New York State, according to the October survey. The general business conditions index fell twenty-three points to -11.9. The new orders index fell twenty points to -10.2, and the shipments index fell twenty-one points to -2.7, pointing to declines in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders were little changed. The inventories index fell eight points to -7.5, indicating that inventories were lower. The delivery times index edged down to -3.2, suggesting that delivery times were somewhat shorter, and the supply availability index fell five points to -7.5, a sign that supply availability worsened in October.
Despite the decline in activity, labor market conditions improved. The index for number of employees climbed ten points to 4.1, its first positive reading in a year, and the average workweek index edged up to 4.7, pointing to small increases in employment levels and hours worked. Price increases remained modest, but ticked up somewhat: the prices paid index rose six points to 29.0, and the prices received index rose three points to 10.8.
Though firms reported that activity declined overall this month, optimism about the outlook grew strongly. The index for future business activity moved up eight points to 38.7, a multi-year high, with 55 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Capital spending plans were modestly positive.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
