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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Frankfurt, Hesse / Germany - May 16, 2018: Sign at the entrance of new European Central Bank
The Shadow Value of Central Bank Lending
After the Great Financial Crisis, the European Central Bank extended its monetary policy to include the use of long-term loans to banks at interest rates close to zero or even negative. These central bank interventions likely played a crucial role in bolstering the financial stability of the euro area. However, quantitative evidence on the effects of these interventions remains scant. The author quantifies the effectiveness of central bank lending programs using a novel structural model.
By Tomas Jankauskas
A Danger to Self and Others: Consequences of Involuntary Hospitalization
Every state in the country has a law permitting involuntary hospitalization if a person presents a danger to themselves or others as a result of mental illness. Although there is no definitive national accounting, it is estimated that about 1.2 million involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations occur every year. The authors use data from their recent Staff Report to measure how psychiatric commitments are impacting an individual’s risk of danger to themselves or others, earnings, and housing.
By Natalia Emanuel, Pim Welle, and Valentin Bolotnyy
Attractive brunette window shopping looking into boutique. Outdoor store selling luxury items.
Consumption Sensitivity of Uncertain Households
Uncertainty is a key component of consumers’ everyday economic decisions and plays a central role in economic models. However, measuring consumers’ uncertainty and how it affects their behavior is challenging. The authors use data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and their recent Staff Report to construct household-specific time-varying uncertainty. They show that more uncertain households display a greater marginal propensity to consume, which poses a challenge for the conventional consumption-savings model with incomplete markets.
By Gizem Koşar and Davide Melcangi
Photo: Partial calendar with a green pin on the 31st.
End-of-Month Activity Across the Treasury Market
Previously, the authors showed that interdealer trading in benchmark U.S. Treasury notes and bonds concentrates on the last trading day of the month. They extend their trading activity analysis to the full range of Treasury securities and market segments and find that trading is even more concentrated on the last trading day of the month for other types of Treasury securities and in the dealer-to-customer segment of the market.
By Michael Fleming, Jonathan Palash-Mizner, and Or Shachar
Photo: Washington, DC, USA - June 25, 2022: The logo of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
The Rise of Sponsored Service for Clearing Repo
Recently instituted rule amendments have initiated a large migration of dealer-to-client Treasury repurchase (repo) trades to central clearing. To date, the main avenue used to access central clearing is Sponsored Service, a clearing product that has, until now, received little attention. Highlighting the results from recent research, the authors summarize the institutional details of this service and its costs and benefits. They then document some basic facts on how market participants use Sponsored Service, based on confidential data.
By Adam Copeland and R. Jay Kahn
Photo: Old Dutch coins from the province of Holland with ancient Dutch banknotes.
Dutch Treat: The Netherlands’ Exorbitant Privilege in the Eighteenth Century
The term “exorbitant privilege” emerged in the 1960s to describe the U.S. economy’s advantages from the dollar’s status as the de facto global reserve currency. The authors examine the exorbitant privilege held by the Netherlands in the eighteenth century, when the Dutch guilder enjoyed global reserve currency status. The private actions of financial institutions created and maintained this privilege, and while it benefited the Dutch financial system, this privilege also laid the seeds of later financial crisis.
By Stein Berre and Asani Sarkar
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
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Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates during the second quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate averaged 5.3 percent, in line with the first quarter, and the underemployment rate held steady at just over 41 percent.
Recent Publications
Cognitive Health, Household Financial Decision-Making, and Intrahousehold Financial Spillovers
This study examines how the approach a couple uses for household financial decision-making affects the financial outcomes of each partner when one member experiences a decline in cognitive health from the onset of Alzheimer’s disease or a related dementia. They assess whether these effects are amplified or diminished depending on the couple’s approach to financial organization, focusing on financial outcomes related to debt and debt management.
Carole Roan Gresenz, Jean M. Mitchell, R. Scott Turner, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Crystal Wang, Staff Report 1169, October 2025
Supervising Failing Banks
Banking supervision seeks to safeguard the health of the financial system by monitoring financial institutions and enforcing regulatory compliance. The effectiveness of banking supervision, however, is hotly debated. The authors study the role of banking supervision in anticipating, monitoring, and disciplining failing banks. They document that supervisors anticipate most bank failures with a high degree of accuracy. Supervisors also play an important role in requiring troubled banks to recognize losses, taking enforcement actions, and ultimately closing failing banks.
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner, Staff Report 1168, October 2025
Understanding Consumer Demand for “Buy Now, Pay Later”
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services typically split the purchase price into an upfront payment followed by interest-free installments. But despite BNPL’s rapid growth since the pandemic, little is known about which of its features draws consumers to use it. The authors conduct a novel probabilistic stated choice experiment, varying BNPL attributes across hypothetical scenarios to estimate consumers’ underlying preferences. Their estimates shed light on which features cause consumers to choose (or avoid) BNPL.
Felix Aidala, Gizem Koşar, Daniel Mangrum, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Report 1167, October 2025
Financial Inclusion in the United States: Measurement, Determinants, and Recent Developments
In recent years, technological change and pandemic-related policies have helped expand access to banking, credit, and payment services to more consumers. However, many people and small firms still lack access to financial services to help them better manage day-to-day finances, absorb economic shocks, and build wealth. The authors review financial inclusion in the U.S., drawing on survey evidence and academic studies, to identify the causes of financial exclusion and the effectiveness of alternative efforts to expand financial inclusion.
Matteo Crosignani, Jonathan Kivell, Daniel Mangrum, Donald Morgan, Ambika Nair, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Policy Review 31, no. 3, September
Transformative and Subsistence Entrepreneurs: Origins and Impacts on Economic Growth
Technological progress depends on the interaction between entrepreneurs and inventors, and the nature of this interaction hinges on the type of entrepreneur. Subsistence entrepreneurs typically focus on day-to-day operations with limited growth ambitions, while transformative entrepreneurs seek to commercialize novel ideas and drive innovation. Using Danish microdata, the authors show that transformative entrepreneurs—those who hire R&D workers—tend to have higher IQ and education and build fast-growing firms than other entrepreneurs.
Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, and Marta Prato, Staff Report 1166, September 2025
How Retrainable Are AI-Exposed Workers?
The debate over whether advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will ultimately complement or substitute labor has drawn significant attention. However, there is a dearth of research examining the role that existing job training programs might play in helping AI-exposed workers adapt to the evolving labor market. The authors assemble a new workforce development dataset and document that workers in AI-exposed occupations are surprisingly resilient in adjusting to AI pressures through job training.
Benjamin Hyman, Benjamin Lahey, Karen Ni, and Laura Pilossoph, Staff Report 1165, August 2025
How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe
The authors document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-side shocks exerted more inflationary pressure on directly affected sectors such as manufacturing. However, despite a later easing of these shocks, inflation became increasingly generalized across the entire European economy, extending even to sectors not directly impacted by supply constraints, such as services.
Viral V. Acharya, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert, and Christian Eufinger, Staff Report 1164, August 2025
A Practitioner’s Note on the Shapley-Owen-Shorrocks Decomposition
The authors provide a simple overview of the Shapley-Owen-Shorrocks decomposition, an effective alternative when studying non-linear outcomes that come from the interaction of various factors. They show that using the Shapley-Owen value, extended to inequality decompositions in Shorrocks (1999, 2013), provides an additive decomposition that sums to one and is easily interpretable in terms of the contribution of different inputs (or groups of them) to some aggregate outcome. They also provide several examples to help implement the approach.
Richard Audoly, Rory McGee, Sergio Ocampo, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Staff Report 1163, August 2025
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