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Photo of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the podium at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
Jackson Hole: Exploring the Financial Frontier
The main theme of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, was financial innovation in the payments space—a fast-evolving topic with major implications for consumers and central bankers alike. In this new Street Level post, I share some general takeaways from those Jackson Hole talks and highlight related New York Fed research on payments and financial intermediation.
By Kartik B. Athreya
Decorative image of flattened globe with dollar signs
Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?
The fall of the dollar’s share of global official foreign exchange reserves is sometimes read as evidence that the dollar’s role in international financial markets is eroding. However, the authors show that the aggregate decline is not a systematic global shift away from dollar assets. Rather, the aggregate decline reflects the actions of a handful of large reserve holders, changing both their currency preferences and the size of their reserve portfolio.
By Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui, and Sneha Parthasarathy
Businesspeople working together at office workplace. Concept of team work, business education, internet surfing, brainstorm, project information technology. Ai technology icons
Businesses Are Using AI to Transform Work, Not Cut Jobs
Over the past three years, the New York Fed’s regional business surveys have asked firms about their AI adoption and its effects on workforces. This year, the authors have found that AI use among regional businesses has continued to rise sharply; however, regional firms’ investments in AI are generally modest, usage tends to be concentrated among a small share of workers within firms, and layoffs have remained uncommon. Retraining employees remains the primary way firms are adjusting their workforces.
By Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, and Nick Montalbano
Close-up of a stock market chart displaying financial data and trading trends.
Has Broader Stock Market Participation Changed How Interest Rates Affect the Economy?
Stock market participation among U.S. households has risen dramatically over the past four decades. As participation widened, the way stock market fluctuations pass through to household spending may have changed, with potential implications for how the broader economy behaves. An argument can be made that the rise in equity market participation has dampened the response of output to interest rate changes as stock market fluctuations are now spread across a larger share of households.
By Juan M. Morelli
Does the Equity Term Structure Respond to Monetary Policy Shocks?
Research has documented the effects of Fed interest rate surprises on stock markets. Although stock markets provide valuable information about the investor risk premium and dividend growth expectations, researchers have only recently developed tools to estimate the term structure of equity risk premia and dividend growth expectations across a broad range of maturities. In this post, the authors investigate how monetary policy shocks impact short- and long-term estimates of risk premia and growth expectations.
By Henry Dyer and Tomas Jankauskas
How Distressed Are Consumers? Reconciling Diverging Credit Card Delinquency Measures
Total debt balances declined slightly in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. However, the percentage of credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6 percent to 12.8 percent between 2022 and 2026. The authors use data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel to better understand the state of the consumer and to explain the difference between two measures of delinquency.
By Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, Tejas Sinha, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
Photo: a four-panel picture of people cleaning up after natural disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates through the second quarter of 2026. The unemployment rate stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent, and the underemployment rate edged up to 42 percent.
Recent Publications
How Do Banks Build Equity Capital?
Understanding how bank equity capital evolves over time is critical to understanding the risks facing individual banks, the banking system, and the broader economy. The authors analyze the components of equity capital to document how U.S. bank holding companies built and depleted equity capital from 1990 to 2024. By bringing together earnings, stock issuance, and shareholder payouts within a unified framework, they quantify the contributions of these components and characterize the patterns that shape equity capital over time.
Lily Gordon and Beverly Hirtle, Economic Policy Review 32, no. 1, September
How Do Market Expectations React to the FOMC Dot Plot?
The public pays close attention to Federal Reserve communications about future monetary policy, but how do these communications shape the public’s expectations for policy rates? These expectations have effects on longer-term interest rates and therefore on the macroeconomy. The authors explore how market expectations adjust to the information provided in the “dot plot” of the Summary of Economic Projections, which contains the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) assessment of the appropriate future path of the federal funds rate.
Stefania D’Amico, Thomas B. King, and Francisco Torralba, Staff Report 1204, September 2026
The Implied Equity Term Structure
An active body of literature studies and measures the expected returns on equity dividend assets with different maturities. The authors propose a new methodology that tackles the inherent empirical challenges of measuring equity risk premia across different maturities. Instead of using realized returns of dividend assets, they generalize the implied cost of capital approach and imply the term structure of ex-ante expected returns from the cross-section of observed stock prices and projected firm-level cash flows.
Lieven Baele, Joost Driessen, and Tomas Jankauskas, Staff Report 1203, September 2026
When Higher Stakes Weaken Security
Settlement systems are designed so that security rises with the stakes: when a bank clears a large payment, the legal framework behind it does not weaken. Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchains attempt to replace this legal infrastructure with a purely incentive-based mechanism, substituting the authority of clearinghouses and courts with costly computation. The authors provide the first causal evidence that, in a major PoW blockchain, security can degrade with the value at stake.
Pablo D. Azar and Maryam Farboodi, Staff Report 1205, September 2026
Stablecoins Meet the Mundell–Fleming Trilemma
The Mundell–Fleming trilemma states that a country cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital mobility, and independent monetary policy. Its core assumption is that the degree of capital mobility is largely determined by policy or by the structure of international financial markets. The authors construct a novel dataset and a small-open-economy New Keynesian model to explore the following question: with the emergence of blockchain-based payment infrastructure and stablecoins, does this assumption remain valid?
Pablo D. Azar, Maryam Farboodi, and Nish D. Sinha, Staff Report 1202, August 2026
The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices
The authors estimate how the 2025 U.S. tariffs pass through to consumer prices, separating the direct effect on imports from the indirect effects on domestically produced goods. The direct effect passes through quickly, since tariffs raise import prices almost immediately, while the indirect effects take nine to twelve months to work through supply chains. As a result, tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest.
Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, Staff Report 1201, revised September 2026
Three Stylized Facts About Inflation Expectations During the 2021-23 Inflation Surge
The authors document three stylized facts about household inflation expectations that stood out during the 2021–23 inflation surge: i) a temporary dislocation in the term structure of expectations, ii) an earlier peak at longer horizons, and iii) a sharp increase in the share of households expecting deflation at medium and long horizons. They show that these stylized facts are consistent with households’ narratives and pose an empirical challenge to existing models of expectation formation.
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams, Staff Report 1200, August 2026
Ordinal Complementarity
The authors develop and empirically test a notion of production complementarity (a higher value of one input raising the return to another) that is ordinal, meaning that it holds across all valuations of the output. Relative to existing conventions, this version of ordinal complementarity obtains more generalizable policy content: in two broad classes of planning problems, it is both a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal allocations to be monotone.
Martín Almuzara, Martín García-Vázquez, and Joseph Mullins, Staff Report 1199, August 2026


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“A central goal of New York Fed Research is to make sure that as we learn, we share.”
     –Kartik Athreya, Research Director

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