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| Productivity Forecasts and Analysis |
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| Quarterly real-time forecasts of productivity growth, based on a model developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Includes links to related research. |
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The Productivity Slowdown Reaffirmed
The authors describe their "regime-switching" productivity model and share its insights into the historical profile of high- and low-growth regimes as well as its outlook for productivity.
By James A. Kahn and Robert Rich, Liberty Street Economics, September 28, 2011 |
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Productivity Swings and Housing Prices
Challenging the notion that bubbles and lax lending standards can fully explain the housing crisis, the author argues that economic fundamentals—specifically, swings in labor productivity—played a significant role in the boom and bust of residential investment.
By James A. Kahn, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 15 (3), July 2009 |
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Is the United States Losing Its Productivity Advantage?
The authors look more closely at differences in productivity growth across countries and examine how strong productivity growth abroad may affect the U.S. economy.
By
by Kevin J. Stiroh and Mary Amiti, Current Issues in Economics and Finance Vol 13 08 September 2007 |
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Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Detect Changes
in Trend Productivity
The authors propose a methodology for estimating trend
growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables
other than productivity-namely consumption and labor compensation-to
help estimate trend productivity growth. Their analysis
picks up evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher
long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early
1970s in the other direction.
By
James A. Kahn and Robert Rich, Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (September 2007), 1670-1701
Previous Version, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 159, January
2003 |
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Tracking Productivity in Real Time
This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model’s success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence.
By
James A. Kahn and Robert Rich, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 12(8), November 2006 |
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Endogenous Productivity and Development Accounting
Using cross-country data on the prices of investment goods, we find that the model does fairly well in quantitatively accounting for the observed dispersion in world income.
By
Roc Armenter and Amartya Lahiri, Staff Reports 258, August 2006 |
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Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability
This paper examines the declining volatility of U.S. output growth from a production perspective.
By
Kevin J. Stiroh, Staff Reports 245, April 2006 |
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Will the U.S. Productivity Resurgence Continue?
The authors project that during the next decade, private sector productivity growth will continue at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, a significant increase from their 2002 projection of 2.2 percent growth.
By
Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Kevin J. Stiroh, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 10(13), December 2004 |
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Taking the Pulse of the Tech Sector:
A Coincident Index of High-Tech Activity
The index suggests that while the tech sector has rebounded from its poor performance in the 2000-01 "tech bust," it has not resumed its rapid expansion of the late 1990s.
By
Bart Hobijn, Kevin J. Stiroh, and Alexis Antoniades, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 9(10), October
2003 |
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Productivity
Growth: A New Era?
Links to papers from panelists and presenters at the New
York Fed's conference on productivity.
Agenda
for November 2, 2001 |
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