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Employment in the New York-New Jersey region will continue to expand this year, but the pace of job growth will drop to 1.5 percent, from 2.2 percent in 2000, according to New York Fed economists James Orr and Rae D. Rosen. The slower growth rate will mean the creation of roughly 190,000 jobs in the region, down from 275,000 jobs last year.
New York City will lead the rest of the region in job growth, with jobs expanding at a 1.9 percent pace. In New Jersey, employment will grow 1.6 percent, and in New York State, 1.5 percent. Two factors, the authors note, have given New York City an edge in maintaining its job gains: the rapid growth of the citys computer services firms and the stimulus provided to the local economy by the high compensation levels in the securities and computer services industries.
The authors examination of the regions job growth includes a review of trends in 2000. According to Orr and Rosen, the employment growth rate for the regions private sector was well above the corresponding national rate. Record profits in the securities industry and strong "pipeline" demand for employees with computer skills offset the negative effects of the stock market retrenchment and dot-com failures that occurred in the second half of the year.