Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
May Survey: Household Finance and Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate; Inflation Expectations Down at Short-Term Horizon
  • Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.5 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons in May.
  • Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with a lower share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago remained largely unchanged.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3 ppts to 43.7 percent, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8 percent and marking the lowest reading since December 2025.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.5 ppt to 15.1 percent, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Household Financial Outlook Deteriorates; Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
housing icon
SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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