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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between November 4 and November 12.
Manufacturing activity grew substantially in New York State, according to the November survey. The general business conditions index climbed forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading since December 2021. The new orders index climbed thirty-eight points to 28.0, and the shipments index rose thirty-five points to 32.5, pointing to sharp increases in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders fell modestly. The inventories index climbed to 1.0, signaling that inventories levelled off. The delivery times index moved up to 3.1, suggesting that delivery times were slightly longer, and the supply availability index came in at -4.1, a sign that supply availability worsened somewhat.
Labor market conditions were stable. The index for number of employees edged down to 0.9, indicating that employment levels were little changed, and the average workweek index edged up to 6.1, pointing to a modest increase in hours worked. Price increases remained steady and modest: the prices paid index came in at 27.8, and the prices received index was 12.4.
Firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. After reaching a multi-year high last month, the index for future business activity edged down six points to a still-high reading of 33.2, with half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Employment is expected to grow moderately. Capital spending plans continued to expand.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
