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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between April 2 and April 9.
Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened.
Manufacturing activity in New York State grew moderately after holding steady last month, according to the April survey. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0, with 36 percent of firms reporting an increase in activity and 25 percent reporting a decrease. The new orders index climbed thirteen points to 19.3 and the shipments index increased twenty-seven points to 20.2, both indexes reaching their highest levels since 2023. Unfilled orders increased for a third consecutive month. The delivery time index came in at 12.1, indicating that delivery times lengthened. Inventories increased. The supply availability index declined six points to -10.1, suggesting that supply availability worsened.
TThe index for number of employees rose four points to 9.8 and the average workweek index increased twelve points to 13.7, suggesting a moderate increase in employment levels and a significant increase in hours worked. After declining last month, the prices paid index rose fourteen points to 51.0, pointing to a sharp acceleration in input price increases, while the prices received index was little changed at 21.8, suggesting that selling price increases held steady.
While firms still expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, the index for future business conditions dipped eleven points to 19.6, suggesting that firms were less optimistic about the outlook. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index dropped nine points to 13.1, indicating that capital spending plans weakened. Supply availability is expected to worsen.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
