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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between June 2 and June 9.
After posting strong growth last month, business activity increased modestly in New York State in June, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index remained positive but fell fourteen points to 5.7. New orders and shipments both moved higher, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and supply availability continued to worsen. Employment expanded for a fifth consecutive month, as did the length of the average workweek. The pace of input price and selling price increases remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms maintained a fairly optimistic outlook for business activity.
On the heels of a strong increase in May, manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State in June. The general business conditions index came in at 5.7, with 29 percent of respondents reporting an increase in activity and 23 percent reporting a decrease. The new orders index moved down to 3.5, pointing to a slight increase in orders, and the shipments index printed at 8.6, pointing to a modest increase in shipments. Unfilled orders continued to rise. Inventories held steady. The delivery times index remained positive at 11.9, suggesting that delivery times continued to lengthen. The supply availability index edged down three points to -13.9, its lowest level since June 2022, pointing to worsening supply availability.
The index for number of employees held steady at 9.6, and the average workweek index came in at 5.1, signaling that employment and hours worked both increased for a fifth consecutive month. The pace of price increases remained elevated, with the prices paid index little changed at 61.0 and the prices received index holding at 31.4.
The index for future business conditions came in at 30.1, with 44 percent of respondents expecting activity to increase in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to worsen. The future selling price index rose to its highest level since 2022, suggesting that firms widely expect to raise their prices over the next six months. Employment is expected to continue to expand. Capital spending plans softened.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
