Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Supplemental Survey Report on the Prices paid for major budget categories will be released December 16 at 8:30 a.m.

Download the full report pdf

The December 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to -3.6, its first negative reading in nearly two years. The new orders index also fell into negative territory, tumbling eleven points to -2.0, and the shipments index fell to -0.2. Labor market conditions were mixed, with the index for number of employees holding steady at 8.3, while the average workweek index declined to -11.5. The prices paid index was little changed at 10.4, indicating a continued modest increase in input prices, while the prices received index climbed to 6.3. Indexes for the six-month outlook continued to convey optimism, but to a somewhat lesser extent than in recent months.

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Released at 8:30 a.m.
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
15 report PDF
18 report PDF
17 report PDF
15 report PDF
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
15 report PDF
16 report PDF
15 report PDF
15 report PDF
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
15 report PDF
15 report PDF
17 report PDF
15 report PDF

2015

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
15
17
16
15
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
15
15
15
17
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
15
15
16
15

Historical Reports ››
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Not seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Not seasonally adjusted: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: txt | csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:
Sample surveyPDF 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

Seasonal factors are available here


Data definitionsPDF 2 pages / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org

Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651

Tools
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