A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between March 3 and March 11. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity declined significantly in the region’s service sector in March, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell nine points to -19.3, its lowest level in more than a year. The business climate index fell sixteen points to -51.7, its lowest level since 2021, suggesting the business climate was considerably worse than normal. Employment declined modestly, and wage growth moderated somewhat. Supply availability worsened slightly. Input price increases picked up at the fastest pace in nearly two years, and selling price increases also ticked up. Looking ahead, firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, and the future employment index dropped to its lowest level since 2020.
Decline in Activity Picks Up Speed
Business activity fell at a substantial pace in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the March survey. The headline business activity index fell nine points to -19.3. Nineteen percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 38 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index dropped sixteen points to -51.7, its lowest level in four years, with nearly 60 percent of respondents saying that the business climate was worse than normal. Employment Continues to Edge Down
The employment index was little changed at -4.7, indicating that employment levels continued to decline slightly. The wages index fell six points to 35.8, indicating that wage increases moderated somewhat. The prices paid index moved up eight points to 58.8, its highest level in nearly two years, a sign that input price increases picked up. After rising eight points last month, the prices received index held steady at 28.7. The supply availability index was -2.8, suggesting supply availability was slightly lower. Outlook Turns Pessimistic
The index for future business activity plunged twenty-five points to -3.3, its first negative reading since 2023, suggesting that firms on the whole do not expect activity to increase in the months ahead. The index for the future business climate fell twenty-three points to -26.9, part of a cumulative decline of forty points over the past two months, suggesting the business climate is expected to remain worse than normal. The future employment index fell to its lowest level since December 2020, with negligible employment growth expected over the next six months. The future supply availability index remained firmly below zero at -18.7, with about 31 percent of firms expecting supply availability to be worse in six months. Capital spending edged down. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |