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April 2024 Revised February 2025
JEL classification: G12, F51, F38
Authors: Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva
To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting specific cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. As a result, domestic suppliers experience a $130 billion decline in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. We also show how Chinese firms strategically respond to export controls. Overall, export controls impose significant costs on domestic firms producing the very technologies these policies intend to protect.
I, Matteo Crosignani, author of the NY FED Staff Report submission “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls” declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.htm.
Lina Han
I, Lina Han, author of the NY FED Staff Report submission “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls” declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.htm.
Marco Macchiavelli
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this blog post.
Andre F. Silva
I, Andre F. Silva, author of the NY FED Staff Report submission “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls” declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.htm.
Crosignani, Matteo, Lina Han, Marco Macchiavelli, and André F. Silva. 2024. “Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1096, April. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1096
