Authors: Gizem Kosar and Wilbert van der Klaauw
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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
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Staff Reports
Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk
Number 1056
February 2023 Revised February 2024
February 2023 Revised February 2024
JEL classification: D84, D81, J31, J63, D12, C23
In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper uses rich panel data to document considerable individual heterogeneity in earnings growth expectations and in the perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job exits. We examine how expectations evolve over the working life and business cycle, and how they co-vary with macroeconomic expectations and personal experiences. While largely consistent with patterns in realized outcomes, our findings highlight the unanticipated nature of the pandemic recession and the ensuing resignation wave.
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