The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Staff Reports
The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect
Number 1052
February 2023

JEL classification: F3, F4, G1

Authors: Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa

This paper investigates the link between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals by estimating the impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin using an event study with intraday data. The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.

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