
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased by 0.1 ppt to 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
- Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated in March, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rising to 30 percent, the highest level since October 2023.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped by 4.6 ppts to 44.0 percent in March, the highest reading since April 2020.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 1.6 ppts to 15.7 percent, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.
For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase, Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate