Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
March Survey: Inflation Expectations Are Mixed at Short-, Medium-, and Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Decline
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased by 0.1 ppt to 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
  • Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated in March, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rising to 30 percent, the highest level since October 2023.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped by 4.6 ppts to 44.0 percent in March, the highest reading since April 2020.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 1.6 ppts to 15.7 percent, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase, Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate
SURVEY MODULES
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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