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Regional Mortgage Briefs

Regional Mortgage Briefs is an online resource designed to provide up-to-date and accessible analytics on critical mortgage and foreclosure concerns impacting our region. This information will help policymakers and housing professionals make informed decisions and efficiently allocate resources.
HIGHLIGHTS


Click each highlight to see the corresponding chart.
1 In the four counties analyzed, 5 percent of mortgages—or about one in 20—are seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure). Rates range from 6.7 percent in Albany County to 4.4 percent in Erie County. Almost as many mortgages are 90+ days past due as are in foreclosure.
2 The foreclosure rate in these four counties combined is 2.7 percent, less than the U.S. rate of 3.9 percent. Ranging from 2.2 to 3.5 percent, each county is performing better than the country as a whole.
3 Since peaking at 3.2 percent (7,151 loans) in February 2010, the percentage of mortgages 90+ days delinquent has declined to 2.3 percent (5,290 loans). As a consequence, the pool of loans at risk of entering the foreclosure process is smaller. Over the same time, the percentage of mortgages in foreclosure has increased to 2.7 percent.
4 The flow of loans either entering foreclosure or becoming 90+ days delinquent within the previous 30 days varies considerably over time, reflecting both borrower and environmental factors such as legal or procedural delays or moratoria. There is some evidence that since early 2009, the shares of loans entering foreclosure or becoming 90+ days delinquent have been broadly trending down.
5 The Erie County house price index has shown year-over-year increases consistently since mid-1009. Unlike New York State as a whole (shaded area on map), house prices in the other counties have not sustained earlier signs of improvement.
6 Mortgage data details: see table of regional impact by county.
The combined four upstate New York counties of Albany, Erie, Monroe and Onondaga have a lower share of mortgages in foreclosure than the United States overall. Together, these four counties have 2.7 percent of mortgages in foreclosure as compared with 3.9 percent for the United States. While the share of loans 90 days or more delinquent—the point at which a foreclosure filing can be initiated—has generally trended down over the last 18 months, the flow of new loans becoming 90 days or more delinquent remains above pre-crisis levels. Housing values in these counties initially saw smaller declines than the state overall, however the subsequent price recovery has not sustained.

*For this analysis, we focus on four upstate counties (Albany, Erie, Monroe and Onondaga), containing some of the largest urban centers (the cities of Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, respectively.)

 
* Click each thumbnail to view chart. See corresponding highlight in left-hand column.
* Click chart to enlarge

Data include first-lien mortgages on 1-4 unit residential properties as of March 1, 2011. To approximate the full universe of residential mortgages, data are aggregated from two sources depending on mortgage type. The source of privately securitized mortgage data is CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP); the source of data on all other mortgages is Lender Processing Services Mortgage Performance data (LPS).

These data do not represent the total number of residential mortgages in each geography but the unadjusted loan counts from the source databases. As of 3/1/2011, the data sets provided monthly loan-level information on approximately 34.9 million active loans in the United States, estimated at 65 percent of the total number of mortgages. However, coverage varies by category and geography.

The House Price Indexes at the county and zip code level are from CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP). To mitigate small-sample concerns, we use a three-month moving average of the HPI that includes all sales in the zip code, including distressed sales.

Housing Unit data are owner-occupied data from the Census American Community Survey, 2005-2009 estimates.