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Regional Mortgage Briefs

Regional Mortgage Briefs is an online resource designed to provide up-to-date and accessible analytics on critical mortgage and foreclosure concerns impacting our region. This information will help policymakers and housing professionals make informed decisions and efficiently allocate resources.
HIGHLIGHTS


Click each highlight to see the corresponding chart.
1 In northern New Jersey, 12 percent of mortgages—or about one in eight—are seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure). At the county level, rates vary from a low of 8 percent in Bergen County to a high of 16 percent in Essex County. Among these seriously delinquent loans, about two-thirds are currently in the foreclosure process.
2 Northern New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is 8 percent—double the U.S. rate. While among the highest rates in the New York–New Jersey–Connecticut tri-state region, northern New Jersey is still well below the rates for the hardest hit regions of the country such as parts of Florida, where foreclosure rates are in the high teens.
3 Foreclosures rates vary considerably across zip codes and display a strong clustering pattern. The percentage of loans in foreclosure in some northern New Jersey zip codes is more than twice the regional rate, reaching as high as 33 percent in one zip code in the city of Newark. (See Essex County tab for more information.)
4 More positive is the year-long decline in the percentage of mortgages 90+ days delinquent. The pool of loans at risk of entering the foreclosure process is smaller than it was a year ago. From a high of 23,100 (5.4 percent of loans) in January 2010, this pool has shrunk to 15,900 (3.7 percent of loans) as of March 2011. However, the pool of mortgages already in foreclosure continues to grow because there are more loans entering the foreclosure process than there are loans completing the process each month. Foreclosures are lengthy, often taking many months or even years.
5 The flow of loans either entering foreclosure or becoming 90+ days delinquent within the previous 30 days varies considerably over time, reflecting both borrower and environmental factors such as legal or procedural delays or moratoria. While the flow has slowed from peak levels, it remains well above pre-crisis values.
6 House price indexes show year-over-year declines in all six counties as of February 2011. Compared with New Jersey as a whole (shaded area on map), Bergen and Middlesex counties have consistently fared better, with less steep declines. Essex has had the largest annual declines, losing 20 percent from May 2008 to May 2009. Passaic, Union and Middlesex counties had small and brief year-over-year increases in mid-2010. The most recent annual declines in all six counties are less severe than those in mid-2009.
7 Mortgage data details: see table of regional impact by county.
In northern New Jersey, 8 percent of mortgages are in foreclosure—twice the share for the United States as a whole. An additional 4 percent of northern New Jersey mortgages are at least 90 days delinquent, the point at which a foreclosure filing can be initiated. Combined, 12 percent—or about one in eight mortgages—are seriously delinquent. By comparison, the pre-crisis share of mortgages seriously delinquent in this region was less than 2 percent. More positively, flows of mortgages into foreclosure and delinquency are down from their peak levels, although still considerably up from pre-crisis levels. Similarly, annual declines in home values are far less steep than they were in 2009, despite a continued fall.

*In our analysis, northern New Jersey includes Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Passaic and Union.

 
* Click each thumbnail to view chart. See corresponding highlight in left-hand column.
* Click chart to enlarge

Data include first-lien mortgages on 1-4 unit residential properties as of March 1, 2011. To approximate the full universe of residential mortgages, data are aggregated from two sources depending on mortgage type. The source of privately securitized mortgage data is CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP); the source of data on all other mortgages is Lender Processing Services Mortgage Performance data (LPS).

These data do not represent the total number of residential mortgages in each geography but the unadjusted loan counts from the source databases. As of 3/1/2011, the data sets provided monthly loan-level information on approximately 34.9 million active loans in the United States, estimated at 65 percent of the total number of mortgages. However, coverage varies by category and geography.

The House Price Indexes at the county and zip code level are from CoreLogic LoanPerformance (LP). To mitigate small-sample concerns, we use a three-month moving average of the HPI that includes all sales in the zip code, including distressed sales.

Housing Unit data are owner-occupied data from the Census American Community Survey, 2005-2009 estimates.