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New York Fed Presents New Analysis on Employment Trends, Noting Recent Improvements across the District
May 6, 2011
NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today presented new analysis on current trends in regional employment, noting an improving employment picture across much of the Second District.1 In New York State and New York City, as well as in Fairfield County, Connecticut, employment growth has roughly matched that of the nation, while in New Jersey it has been more modest. Looking ahead, growth in regional service-sector jobs is expected to strengthen and to lead the employment recovery; while weakness in other sectors, including manufacturing, construction and, especially, state and local government are likely to continue hampering job growth, according to New York Fed regional economists.
“We expect employment in New York and New Jersey to continue to recover, led by growth in private services jobs, though there are downside risks to the region from state and local government fiscal restraint,” said William Dudley, president and chief executive officer of the New York Fed.
Over the past year, the tri-state region has added more than 100,000 private-sector jobs. Businesses in a variety of service sectors across the region contributed to the job growth, including professional and business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality, and finance. While New York and southwestern Connecticut have been gaining jobs for more than a year, only in the past few months has New Jersey begun to expand employment. And in Puerto Rico, job growth has yet to be firmly established.
Consistent with the national trend, unemployment rates across much of the region have retreated from their cyclical peaks. However, March’s unemployment rate of 8.0 percent in New York and 9.3 percent in New Jersey are still elevated in comparison with levels before the recent down turn. Puerto Rico, meanwhile, has experience little improvement, with an unemployment rate of 16.1 percent.
Throughout the recent downturn, job losses in both New York State and New York City were less severe than in the nation and also less severe than in the prior two regional downturns. In New Jersey, job losses were comparable to the nation and to the most recent severe recession. Of note, job counts in state and local government held steady for much of the recession in New York and New Jersey but began to decline as the recovery got underway. Over 40,000 jobs have been lost in the sector to date.
New York State (except New York City):
New York City:
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